QuantexMarket risk research

17 Oct 2026 · Study: Extreme moves · Research note

Gold's largest one-day moves

Huyen X. Vu · Quantex Research, AlgoTrade Pte. Ltd., Singapore · ORCID 0000-0002-2209-842X

Abstract

How far can gold move in one day? We list the largest one-day moves reported by public sources from 1980 to 2026, each with its date, size, price basis (spot, COMEX futures or London fix) and at least two independent sources, keeping different bases apart. The list runs from a fall of about 13% on 22 January 1980 to the 9.5–9.8% spot fall of 30 January 2026. We then show what a day of this size does to a grid or martingale EA and how to size a gold EA so that such a day does not end the account.

Keywords: gold; extreme moves; tail risk; one-day returns; position sizing
JEL: G01; G11; Q02

1. Introduction

How far can gold move in a single day? This note lists the largest one-day moves in gold that public sources report, from 1980 to 2026. Each row has a date, the size of the move, what price it was measured on, and at least two independent public sources. Then it sets out what a day like this does to a grid or martingale EA.

The question

What is the largest one-day move gold has made, and how should a gold EA be sized so that a day like that does not end the account?

2. Results

The table

Moves are as reported by the sources. "Spot" is the over-the-counter price for immediate delivery. "COMEX" is the US gold futures contract named in the row. "London PM fix" is the afternoon London fixing price. A move measured on one basis is not the same number as on another, so we keep them apart. Where sources give different sizes, we show the range and name each source.

Date Move Basis Context Sources
22 Jan 1980 Down about 13%
$850.00 to $737.50		 London PM fix, 21 to 22 Jan The day after the 1980 peak of $850. SD Bullion, LBMA fix table; Mining.com
28 Feb 1983 Down 9.6% to 12.1%, by source 9.6%: price basis not stated. 11.5% ($56): not stated. 12.1%: London PM fix, $464.75 to $408.50 The fall that the 2013 and 2026 drops were measured against. Sources differ on the size. Investing News (9.6%); Moneyness (11.5%); SD Bullion, LBMA fix table (12.1%)
17 Sep 2008 Up 9%
+$70 to $850.50		 COMEX December futures, settle Flight to safety in the 2008 financial crisis. Reported as the largest one-day gain in dollar terms up to then. CNN Money; Reuters
15 Apr 2013 Down 8.9% to 9.1% Spot End of the 12-year bull run. Reported as the largest one-day fall since 1983. Reuters (8.9%); Bloomberg (9.1%)
11 Aug 2020 Down 5.7% (spot)
Down 4.6% (futures)		 Spot; COMEX December futures, settle Rising US yields. Reported as the largest fall since 2013. Spot: Bloomberg via BNN; S&P Global, citing Canaccord. Futures: Bloomberg via BNN; CNBC
21 Oct 2025 Down 5.3% to 6.3%, by basis 5.32%: COMEX December futures, settle. 5.5%: spot, mid-session. 6.3%: spot, largest fall within the day One day after a record high. Sources say largest fall "since 2020" or "since 2013". CME Group (5.32%); Reuters via Kitco (5.5%); Bloomberg (6.3%)
30 Jan 2026 Down 9.5% to 9.8% Spot One day after a record high. Reported as the largest one-day fall since 1983. See note 04. QNA via The Peninsula (9.5%); Reuters via BNN Bloomberg (more than 9.8%)

The 22 Jan 1980 and 28 Feb 1983 fix moves (13% and 12.1%) are our own arithmetic from the fix prices in the sources. All other sizes are as the sources state them.

What the table shows

  • Moves of about 9% to 13% in one day have happened. Five days in the table moved about 9% or more: 1980, 1983, 2008 (up), 2013 and 30 January 2026.
  • Large falls come right after records. The 1980, 2025 and 2026 falls each came one day after a record high.
  • Up days count too. The 2008 row is a rise of 9%. An EA that sells into strength faces the same problem in the other direction.
  • The basis changes the number. On 21 Oct 2025 the futures settle and the spot low differ by about one percentage point. Your broker's CFD price is a third basis, and its low or high on the day may differ again.

Typical daily range

From our own daily data for 2005 to 2024, the median day moved 0.54% from the previous close and the median high-to-low range was 1.28% of price. Read the moves above as multiples of that: a 9% day is about seven times a normal day's range. Details in note 08, XAUUSD largest daily moves: 20 years of gold data.

3. Discussion

What a move this size does to a grid or martingale EA

This is a method, not a test of any one EA. Use your own numbers.

  1. Turn the percentage into price distance. Distance in dollars = move % × gold price at the start of the day. The same percentage is a much larger dollar move at today's prices than in 1980 or 2013.
  2. Count the grid levels filled. Levels filled = distance ÷ your grid step. A one-way day fills every level on the way, often without a pullback to close any of them.
  3. Add up the open lot size. For a fixed-lot grid, total lots = levels × base lot. For a martingale, each level multiplies the lot, so total lots grow much faster than the number of levels.
  4. Work out the open loss at the worst point. For each open position, loss = (distance from its entry to the day's extreme) × its lots × contract size. Sum them all.
  5. Compare with free margin. If the open loss plus the margin for all open positions is larger than your equity, the broker closes positions at the stop-out level, usually near the worst price of the day.
  6. Add worse fills and higher margin. Spreads widen and fills slip on days like these, and margin can be raised after the event. Note 04 shows CME raising gold margin after 30 Jan 2026.

The full step-by-step method is in note 03, How to stress-test a gold EA for crash scenarios. A worked case for one day is in note 04, What the 30 January 2026 gold drop did to EAs.

4. Limitations

Data we still need

  • Exact closes for some days. For 21 Oct 2025 and 30 Jan 2026 several sources report the move during the session, not at the close. We show those as reported.
  • Broker CFD prices. The table uses spot, futures and London fix prices. A broker's own XAUUSD high and low can differ.

Left out

We left out moves that only one independent source reported, including the large rise in spot gold on 3 Feb 2026 (all copies we found were the same Reuters report) and the futures settle on 30 Jan 2026.

Limits of this note

Sizes come from the public sources linked above and differ by source and by price basis, so we show ranges. Days that only one independent source reported are left out, so the table may miss some large days. The EA section is a method, not a test of any one EA.

Appendix

FAQ

What is gold's largest one-day fall?
In this table, the largest is 22 January 1980: the London PM fix fell from $850.00 to $737.50, about 13%. Sources differ on 28 February 1983, giving 9.6% to 12.1% depending on the price used.

How big was the 30 January 2026 fall?
Spot gold fell about 9.5% to 9.8%, reported as the largest one-day fall since 1983.

What is gold's average daily range?
In our daily data for 2005 to 2024, the median high-to-low range was 1.28% of the previous close, US$16.65 per ounce. See note 08.

References

  • SD Bullion, gold price fix tables 1980 and 1983 (LBMA AM/PM fix data): 1980, 1983
  • Mining.com, "Gold price drops more than $80 an ounce", 12 Mar 2020: mining.com
  • Investing News, "Gold drops over 8% in worst one-day decline since 1983", 15 Apr 2013: investingnews.com
  • Moneyness, "Nineteen eighty-three", 16 Apr 2013: moneyness.ca
  • CNN Money, "Gold posts record gain", 17 Sep 2008: money.cnn.com
  • Reuters, "Gold posts historic gains on flight to safety", 17 Sep 2008: finance.cz
  • Reuters, "Gold investors run for the exits, prices suffer biggest-ever drop", 16 Apr 2013: business-standard.com
  • Bloomberg, "Gold's worst plunge since 1983 ends 12-year bull run: timeline", 17 Apr 2013: bloomberg.com
  • Bloomberg via BNN, gold heads for biggest drop in 7 years, 11 Aug 2020: bnnbloomberg.ca
  • S&P Global, gold price slide, 12 Aug 2020: spglobal.com
  • CNBC, gold markets, 11 Aug 2020: cnbc.com
  • CME Group, "Gold futures print their steepest decline in over 10 years", 21 Oct 2025: cmegroup.com
  • Reuters via Kitco, 21 Oct 2025: kitco.com
  • Bloomberg, "Gold and silver post steepest drops in years as rally cools", 21 Oct 2025: news.bgov.com
  • QNA via The Peninsula, "Gold prices post biggest one-day drop in four decades", 31 Jan 2026: thepeninsulaqatar.com
  • Reuters via BNN Bloomberg, "Gold, silver fall further as CME margin hike stokes selling", 2 Feb 2026: bnnbloomberg.ca

Declarations

  • Author: Huyen X. Vu, Quantex Research, AlgoTrade Pte. Ltd., Singapore (ORCID 0000-0002-2209-842X).
  • Data availability: Public sources are listed under Sources. Results for our own models come from internal records that are not public; summary figures are shown in the note.
  • Use of AI tools: Data processing, analysis code and drafting were assisted by AI tools (Claude, Anthropic). The author checked the results and is responsible for the content.
  • Conflict of interest: The author is the founder of AlgoTrade Pte. Ltd., which develops and runs systematic trading models.
  • Funding: No external funding.
  • Peer review: Not yet peer reviewed. Comments are welcome at info@quantex.com.sg.
  • How to cite: Vu, H. X. (2026). Gold's largest one-day moves. Quantex Research, AlgoTrade Pte. Ltd. https://quantex.com.sg/research/2026-10-17-gold-extreme-moves/

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