Market risk researchXAUUSD largest daily moves: 20 years of gold data
Huyen X. Vu · Quantex Research, AlgoTrade Pte. Ltd., Singapore · ORCID 0000-0002-2209-842X
Abstract
How often is a gold day really big? On 5,138 XAUUSD trading days from 2005 to 2024 the median close-to-close move was 0.54% and the median high-to-low range 1.28%. 6.5% of days moved 2% or more, 1.9% moved 3% or more and 0.19% (10 days) moved 5% or more. Fourteen of the 20 largest moves were falls; the largest rise was +10.99% (17 September 2008) and the largest fall −9.06% (15 April 2013). Big days clustered in crises: seven of the 20 largest were in 2008.
Keywords: gold; XAUUSD; daily returns; extreme moves; tail risk
JEL: G01; G14; Q02
Highlights
- A normal day is small. The median day moved 0.54% from the previous close. The average was 0.76%.
- A typical day's range is about 1.3%. The median high-to-low range was 1.28% of the previous close, US$16.65 per ounce over the 20 years. In 2024 alone the median range was 1.24%, or US$30.63, because the gold price was higher.
- Big days are rare but not very rare. 333 days (6.5%) moved 2% or more. 98 days (1.9%) moved 3% or more. 10 days (0.19%) moved 5% or more.
- The largest days are mostly falls. 14 of the 20 largest moves were down. The largest rise was +10.99% on 17 Sep 2008. The largest fall was −9.06% on 15 Apr 2013.
- Big days cluster in crises. 7 of the 20 largest days were in 2008. 2017 had no day of 2% or more.
1. Introduction
How far does gold (XAUUSD) move in one day, and how often is a day really big? We measured the close-to-close move on 5,138 trading days from 2005 to 2024 in daily data, and the high-to-low range of each day.
2. Data and method
Method
- Data: daily XAUUSD bars from the public dataset "xauusd-gold-price-historical-data-2004-2025" on Hugging Face (file XAU_1d_data.jsonl), the same dataset as our weekend-gap note. It is broker-style MetaTrader data.
- Move: today's close minus the previous trading day's close, as a % of the previous close.
- Range: today's high minus today's low, as a % of the previous close and in US$ per ounce.
- Window: 1 Jan 2005 to 31 Dec 2024, 5,138 days. Two days were left out because the bar before was more than 4 calendar days earlier (late Nov 2005 and late Nov 2006). 2025 is left out because the 2025 data has long holes.
- Limits: one source, not checked against a second. Bar times are broker server time, so a "day" may not match the London or New York day, and moves differ a little from spot fixes or futures settles. For example, news sources give 9% for 17 Sep 2008 on COMEX futures, while this data shows +10.99%. Every number here comes from our own script.
3. Results
The 20 largest daily moves
| # | Date | Close before | Close | Move | Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 17 Sep 2008 | 778.00 | 863.50 | +10.99% | Financial-sector fears after the AIG rescue (CNN Money) |
| 2 | 15 Apr 2013 | 1,482.33 | 1,348.00 | −9.06% | Largest one-day fall since 1983 (Reuters) |
| 3 | 21 Nov 2008 | 745.00 | 800.00 | +7.38% | |
| 4 | 10 Oct 2008 | 913.00 | 849.60 | −6.94% | |
| 5 | 13 Jun 2006 | 604.20 | 565.50 | −6.41% | |
| 6 | 1 Dec 2008 | 816.00 | 768.70 | −5.80% | |
| 7 | 11 Aug 2020 | 2,027.61 | 1,912.57 | −5.67% | Rising US yields (Bloomberg via BNN) |
| 8 | 4 Nov 2008 | 722.60 | 762.70 | +5.55% | |
| 9 | 22 Oct 2008 | 771.50 | 729.20 | −5.48% | |
| 10 | 12 Apr 2013 | 1,560.99 | 1,482.33 | −5.04% | |
| 11 | 16 Oct 2008 | 847.50 | 805.50 | −4.96% | |
| 12 | 23 Sep 2011 | 1,740.10 | 1,653.92 | −4.95% | |
| 13 | 20 Jun 2013 | 1,351.03 | 1,284.42 | −4.93% | |
| 14 | 23 Jan 2009 | 856.50 | 898.70 | +4.93% | |
| 15 | 29 Feb 2012 | 1,784.05 | 1,696.35 | −4.92% | |
| 16 | 15 May 2006 | 714.20 | 679.50 | −4.86% | |
| 17 | 24 Jun 2016 | 1,255.96 | 1,315.67 | +4.75% | |
| 18 | 24 Mar 2020 | 1,552.39 | 1,625.33 | +4.70% | |
| 19 | 12 Nov 2007 | 831.60 | 793.40 | −4.59% | |
| 20 | 9 Nov 2020 | 1,951.81 | 1,863.13 | −4.54% |
Prices in US$ per ounce: the daily close in the dataset, and the close of the trading day before. Context is given only where a public news source reports the event; the sources are listed below.
How often a day is big
- 1% or more: 1,350 days (26.3%), about one day in four.
- 2% or more: 333 days (6.5%), about one day in fifteen.
- 3% or more: 98 days (1.9%), about five days a year on average.
- 5% or more: 10 days (0.19%). Six were in 2008, two in 2013, one in 2006 and one in 2020.
Up and down days were close to even: 2,706 up, 2,418 down and 14 flat.
Year by year
Days with a close-to-close move of 2% or more in each year, 2005 to 2024.
Big days come in groups. 2008 had 66 days of 2% or more and 2006 had 44. From 2017 to 2019 there were only 5 such days in three years. 2020 (the pandemic) brought 20 again.
4. Discussion
Why it matters for an EA
- Size for the big day, not the median day. A 2% day happened about once every three weeks over these 20 years. A grid or martingale EA that only survives a 1% move will meet a larger one often.
- Daily moves are far larger than weekend gaps. The largest weekend gap from 2015 to 2024 was 1.67%. See Gold weekend gaps: how often, how big.
- The worst days are larger than this table. The data here ends in 2024. Moves of 9% or more, including 30 January 2026, are in Gold's largest one-day moves. A step-by-step method is in How to stress-test a gold EA for crash scenarios.
- Simple rules are a fair test. For how AI trading agents did against just holding the market, see LLM trading agents vs buy-and-hold.
Appendix
Related notes
- Average daily range by year and month, and how often a day beats its 14-day average: XAUUSD average daily range: 20 years of gold data by year and month.
- Which calendar months gold rose or fell, 2005 to 2024: Gold seasonality by month: 20 years of XAUUSD returns.
References
- XAUUSD daily data: Hugging Face, ZombitX64/xauusd-gold-price-historical-data-2004-2025 (file XAU_1d_data.jsonl, downloaded 17 Oct 2026). The dataset card names the Kaggle dataset "novandraanugrah/xauusd-gold-price-historical-data-2004-2024" as its source.
- CNN Money, "Gold posts record gain", 17 Sep 2008: money.cnn.com
- Reuters, "Gold investors run for the exits, prices suffer biggest-ever drop", 16 Apr 2013: business-standard.com
- Bloomberg via BNN, gold heads for biggest drop in 7 years on rising US yields, 11 Aug 2020: bnnbloomberg.ca
Declarations
- Author: Huyen X. Vu, Quantex Research, AlgoTrade Pte. Ltd., Singapore (ORCID 0000-0002-2209-842X).
- Data availability: Daily XAUUSD prices from a public dataset (Hugging Face, ZombitX64/xauusd-gold-price-historical-data-2004-2025), as described in the Method section. Our calculation files are available on request.
- Use of AI tools: Data processing, analysis code and drafting were assisted by AI tools (Claude, Anthropic). The author checked the results and is responsible for the content.
- Conflict of interest: The author is the founder of AlgoTrade Pte. Ltd., which develops and runs systematic trading models.
- Funding: No external funding.
- Peer review: Not yet peer reviewed. Comments are welcome at info@quantex.com.sg.
- How to cite: Vu, H. X. (2026). XAUUSD largest daily moves: 20 years of gold data. Quantex Research, AlgoTrade Pte. Ltd. https://quantex.com.sg/research/2026-10-18-xauusd-largest-daily-moves/